[A-DX] Funkprognose 31.12.2004-6.01.2005

[Wolf Harranth <harranth@xxxxxxxx>]

Solar-activity forecast for the period Dec 31, 2004 - Jan 6, 2005

Activity level: low to moderate
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 85-130 f.u.
Flares: weak (5-20/day), middle (1-4/period)
Relative sunspot number: in the range 35-90

Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch@xxxxxxxxxx
(RWC Prague)
_____________________________________________________________________

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period Dec 31 2004 to Jan 6,
2005

quiet: 0
quiet to unsettled: Jan 5 and 6
unsettled: Dec 31, Jan 1 and 4
unsettled to active: Jan 2 and 3
active: 0
minor storm: 0
major storm: 0
severe storm: 0

Geomagnetic activity summary: geomagnetic field was quiet on
Dec 24, quiet to unsettled on Dec 27, unsettled on Dec 23, 25, 26,
28 and 29.

RWC Prague, Geophysical Institute Prague, Geomagnetic Dept,
Czech Republic
e-mail: geom@xxxxxxxxx
_____________________________________________________________________

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period of one solar rotation

active:    Jan 1-8, (10,), 12-13, 16-19, 21-24
disturbed: Jan (1,) 2-3, (4-6,) 7-8, 12-13, (17, 19,) 21, (24)
quiet:     Dec 31, Jan (9, 11), (14)-15

Survey:    quiet: Dec 24
           mostly quiet: Dec 27
           quiet to unsettled: Dec 23, 25-26
           mostly nsettled: Dec 29
           quiet to active: Dec 21, 28
           unsettled to active: Dec 22

Remarks: Days in brackets () => lower probability of activity
         (or lower accuracy of) forecast, depending on previous
         development on the Sun. In addition especially at this
         time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions are
         frequently determined by short timescale events, usually
         not able to be forecasted.

Frantisek K. Janda, OK1HH
with seasonal greetings from
Czech Propagation Interested Group
e-mail: franta.janda@xxxxxxxx
_____________________________________________________________________


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